Backtest
Test the model before the market does
Replay your strategy across past seasons and see returns and drawdowns before a stake is placed.
Prove your edge before you stake it.
Backtest sports trading models, track the news and stats that move your markets.
football-model-v3 / backtest / 2023-01-01 → 2026-09-13
GBP · comm 2%PAPER
- Bankroll
- £24,804
- from £10,000
- Yield
- +4.8%
- £308k staked
- CLV
- +2.3%
- vs close
- Strike rate
- 38.9%
- avg odds 2.91
- Max DD
- −14.9%
- peak to trough
- Bets
- 3,482
- ¼ Kelly
Bankroll
¼ Kelly Flat £100Drawdownmax −14.9%
Last settled
3,482 bets| Date | Selection | Odds | Close | CLV | Stake | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | Villarreal · Villarreal v Real Betis | 2.46 | 2.38 | +3.4% | £168 | +£240 |
| 13 Sep | The Draw · Leverkusen v Mainz | 4.20 | 4.00 | +5.0% | £71 | −£71 |
| 12 Sep | Under 2.5 · Brentford v Fulham | 1.92 | 1.84 | +4.3% | £236 | +£213 |
| 12 Sep | Everton · Aston Villa v Everton | 4.60 | 4.80 | −4.2% | £58 | −£58 |
| 12 Sep | Over 2.5 · Napoli v Genoa | 2.04 | 1.96 | +4.1% | £194 | +£198 |
| 12 Sep | PSV · PSV v Twente | 1.74 | 1.70 | +2.4% | £262 | −£262 |
Brighton v Newcastle
LivePremier League · Match Odds · 17:30£1.28m matched
FairBackLayEdge
- Brighton2.022.12£4,8122.14£2,390+3.8%
- Newcastle4.264.00£1,6554.10£2,104−7.5%
- The Draw3.703.55£9883.60£1,530−5.4%
Brighton · LTP2.12 ▼ 0.12
Signal · back15:03
Brighton @ 2.12£217
edge +3.8% · ¼ Kellymatched ✓
Market news
- 15:02
LineupNewcastle XI confirmed, two changes from midweek
Brighton 2.14 → 2.12
- 14:41
InjuryNewcastle's first-choice keeper ruled out
Brighton 2.20 → 2.14
- 14:15
WeatherHeavy rain forecast at kick-off
Under 2.5 1.92 → 1.85
- 13:30
ModelFair prices refreshed with latest xG
Brighton fair 2.02
Platform
From hypothesis to stake, in one workflow.
Market watch
News and stats that move prices
Injuries, lineups, weather and form — matched to the markets your strategy trades.
Sizing & risk
Every stake sized, every order checked
Fractional Kelly sizing, with hard limits no order can pass on its way to the exchange.
How it works
- 1
Bring your model
Your prices, your edge.
- 2
Backtest
Measure it on history.
- 3
Paper trade
Run it on live markets, risk-free.
- 4
Go live
A deliberate switch, same limits.